Neither Israeli bloc has a majority as Netanyahu and Eisenkot weigh coalition options

JERUSALEM — Neither Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's bloc nor the opposition camp led by Gadi Eisenkot won a Knesset majority in the October 27 election, leaving both short of the 61 seats needed, according to final counts reported on October 30.

Israel's public broadcaster KAN reported on Thursday evening that counting was complete. Netanyahu's bloc of right-wing and ultra-Orthodox parties took 53 seats, including 27 for his Likud party, according to Arab News, which cited AFP. The opposition Change bloc won 48 seats. The two Arab-majority lists, Ra'am and the Joint List, won 19 between them.

Al Jazeera reported that the Central Elections Committee published final results early on Friday and put turnout at 77.9 percent. Anadolu Agency reported that final results were expected on November 4, after verification procedures. It cited opposition leader Yair Lapid as giving turnout as 77.7 percent, the highest since 1999. The sources do not explain the differences in timing and turnout figures.

Al Jazeera said at least 500,000 "double envelope" ballots, cast by soldiers and diplomats, were counted on Thursday.

Lapid: "no way" for Netanyahu

Lapid said on X on Friday that Netanyahu had "no way to form a government" with 53 seats. He noted that the prime minister's bloc held 68 seats in the outgoing Knesset. He described the opposition's result as a "win on points" rather than a "knockout".

Lapid said the next stage would be harder than the campaign.

"Forming a government is the exact opposite. It takes place in small rooms, slowly, away from the cameras." — Yair Lapid, opposition leader

He added: "It will be difficult. I have no guarantees."

Options for Netanyahu

According to AFP, Netanyahu would have to approach opposition parties to join his government. That would be a reversal after a campaign built on pledges to remove him. AFP said very little information had leaked about any behind-the-scenes talks.

AFP assessed the likely responses of the four parties in Eisenkot's camp. It said the left-wing Democrats, led by Yair Golan, which won eight seats, would be the least receptive. It said Avigdor Lieberman's Yisrael Beiteinu, which won seven, would probably also refuse.

Lieberman said on Thursday that "the only conceivable coalition" was one without Netanyahu, AFP reported. It said he suggested the rest of Netanyahu's party would be tolerated. Al Jazeera quoted him as saying "Neither Bibi nor Tibi". The remark referred to Netanyahu and Ahmad Tibi, leader of the Ta'al party, which is part of the Joint List.

AFP said the position of Naftali Bennett's centre-right Together party, which won 12 seats, was less clear. It reported that Bennett first suggested he might not oppose an alliance with Netanyahu's camp under certain conditions. One was the immediate creation of a commission of inquiry into the October 7, 2023 attacks. He later said his remarks had been misconstrued, according to AFP.

AFP described a deal with Eisenkot's Yashar party, which won 21 seats, as remote. Eisenkot ran on a promise to remove Netanyahu and has ruled out rotating the premiership. "There will be only one prime minister, and it will be me," he said before the vote, according to AFP.

Netanyahu could also turn to the Arab-majority lists, AFP said, though it called this highly improbable. He cast them as a threat during the campaign. Al Jazeera reported that Likud accused them of "stealing" the election. Netanyahu wrote on X on Friday: "It is forbidden to form a government with them."

Separately, Yedioth Ahronoth reported that Itamar Ben-Gvir, leader of the far-right Jewish Power party, met Netanyahu on Thursday. Jewish Power said the two discussed preventing a left-wing government backed by Arab parties.

Options for Eisenkot

AFP said Eisenkot has two main routes. One is a minority government backed from outside by other parties. The other is to widen his coalition by adding Arab lawmakers or defectors from the other camp. On election night, Eisenkot said voters had "chosen change".

The Change bloc and the Arab parties together hold 67 seats. Anadolu noted the Arab parties are not formally part of the bloc, and opposition leaders disagree about cooperating with them.

Ra'am leader Mansour Abbas joined a short-lived coalition before and has said he is willing to do so again, according to AFP. Some parties in the opposition camp oppose that. Golan met Abbas on Thursday and urged Change bloc leaders to reconsider their stance, Anadolu reported. Lieberman opposes a government that includes Arab parties.

The Joint List's Yousef Jabareen has said he would support Eisenkot in parliament without joining his government, according to AFP. Jabareen wrote on X that change "comes through Jewish-Arab partnership".

Al Jazeera reported that both Netanyahu and Eisenkot have ruled out working with Ra'am and the Joint List. It cited the Times of Israel as saying Eisenkot would consider only parties that recognise Israel as a Jewish and democratic state. They would also have to endorse the values of the Declaration of Independence and back national service for all Israelis. He has not said whether the Arab lists meet those conditions, according to Al Jazeera.

Background

Under the process described by Al Jazeera, President Isaac Herzog chooses the candidate best placed to form a government. That candidate has about 28 days, which can be extended. If the candidate fails, Herzog can pick another. If that also fails, a 21-day period opens in which 61 lawmakers can ask the president to give the task to a Knesset member. If all of this fails, Israel returns to elections. AFP said Herzog has said a new vote must be avoided at all costs.

AFP noted a precedent for unlikely partnerships. In 2020, Netanyahu and centrist Benny Gantz agreed to rotate the premiership, but the arrangement collapsed after a year. AFP also said Netanyahu approached Arab parties in 2015 and 2021.

Al Jazeera reported that coalition consultations were under way. Details of the talks have not been made public.