Israeli exit polls show no clear winner as Arab parties post gains

JERUSALEM — Exit polls and partial counts from Israel's general election on Tuesday show neither Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's bloc nor the opposition winning a majority, with Arab-led parties set for their strongest result in years, according to media reports.

Israeli broadcasters' exit polls indicated that neither Netanyahu nor his main rival, former military chief Gadi Eisenkot, was positioned to command a majority in the 120-seat Knesset, BBC Urdu reported. A government needs 61 seats.

The same report said the two Arab parties that contested the election were projected to win a record 18 or 19 seats between them. BBC Urdu did not say which broadcasters produced the figures.

Partial counts

Arab News, citing Israel's Channel 12, reported that with about 70 percent of votes counted, Netanyahu's bloc held at 54 seats. The opposition "Change" bloc stood at 47 seats.

Netanyahu's Likud party was at 27 seats, according to that count. Eisenkot's Yashar party, down one seat, was at 20. The Joint List, an alliance of Arab-led parties, rose to 13 seats, Arab News said, with more than 4 million votes counted.

Arab News listed the other parties as follows: Together at 11 seats, The Democrats and Yisrael Beiteinu at eight each, and Otzma Yehudit, United Torah Judaism and Shas at seven each. Ra'am, Religious Zionism and Identity were at six each. Otzma Yehudit is led by National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir.

BBC Urdu gave slightly different figures at an earlier stage, with 66.3 percent of ballots counted. It put Likud at 27 seats and Yashar at 21. It said the Netanyahu-aligned bloc of right-wing and religious parties was on 54 seats, seven short of a majority. It put the anti-Netanyahu bloc at 48 seats.

In that count, BBC Urdu said, the Joint List was ahead in 12 seats and the United Arab List in six, which would bring Arab representation to 18. The outlet said turnout had passed 77 percent. It described that as unusually high for recent years.

Anadolu Agency reported an earlier snapshot with 16.8 percent of ballots counted. Likud led with 24.1 percent of the vote, followed by Yashar with 16.1 percent.

The figures differ between outlets and between stages of the count. Arab News noted that the final distribution of seats could change as counting continues.

Netanyahu rules out Arab-backed government

Netanyahu said a coalition with Arab parties would be "a shame and a disgrace," according to Middle East Eye.

"It is forbidden - simply forbidden - to endanger Israel and to establish a government that relies on anti-Zionist Arab parties," he told crowds, the outlet reported. It said he described those parties as "opposed to our very existence." BBC Urdu also reported that Netanyahu said a government could not be formed with Arab parties' support.

Arab News said Netanyahu has called for a strong right-wing government and ruled out cooperation with Arab parties. It said both Netanyahu and Eisenkot claimed victory.

Eisenkot's position disputed

Reports differ on Eisenkot's stance toward Arab-led parties. Arab News said he has expressed conditional openness to working with them, though it described such an arrangement as politically sensitive.

Republika, an Indonesian outlet, reported the opposite. It said Eisenkot firmly rejects forming a government with Arab parties, citing a lack of shared core values. It said most major Jewish parties have closed the door to a coalition with Arab parties.

Republika said that if projections hold, anti-Netanyahu parties face two difficult options. They could break a campaign pledge not to work with Netanyahu, or they could make a political deal with the Arab-majority parties.

In a post on Telegram, Al Jazeera Arabic's news channel quoted Channel 12 as saying Ben-Gvir had warned against talk of a unity government with Eisenkot. According to the post, he called it "a grave mistake." The post is unverified, and Zenga News has not confirmed the remarks independently.

Arab voters

Republika reported that Arab citizens make up about one-fifth of Israel's population. Many identify as Palestinian citizens of Israel, it said. Political disillusionment has previously held down their turnout, the outlet said. This time, it reported, there was a strong push to unseat what it called the most right-wing coalition in Israel's history. That government combines Netanyahu with far-right and ultra-Orthodox parties.

The outlet quoted Arkan Badran, a 23-year-old student handing out leaflets in Nazareth, as saying it was the community's duty to bring down the government. He said it treats Arab citizens as second-class citizens. He urged young people to vote for Arab parties.

Suha Salman Mousa of the Mossawa Centre, a group that campaigns for equal rights for Arab citizens, told Republika that Arab citizens have been treated as enemies of the state since the 7 October 2023 attack. She alleged mass arrests and dismissals over social media posts or opposition to the war in Gaza. She also accused ministers of systematic discrimination and incitement.

Republika said civil society groups allege the government has disproportionately cut budgets for Arab communities. It said the government argues the cuts are needed to fund defence and security during wartime.

Republika also published a photo from AFP showing Joint List supporters cheering at the alliance's campaign headquarters in Nazareth on 27 October as the first exit polls were broadcast.

Background

No single party has ever won 61 or more seats in the Knesset and governed alone, BBC Urdu noted, so Israeli governments are always formed by coalition. After counting ends, the president consults party leaders. The president then invites one of them to try to form a government, the outlet said.

Arab News described the election as closely watched amid public discontent with Netanyahu's government and repeated electoral deadlock. It said the result raises the prospect of weeks of negotiations. Final results and coalition talks will determine who forms the next government.